A faltering debate performance, an assassination attempt and a dramatic exit from the presidential race all had one thing in common – they put Robert F. Kennedy Jr. even farther from the spotlight in the race for the White House.
Kennedy insists that his time has come and that President Biden’s decision to step down in favor of Vice President Kamala Harris has sparked a surge of interest in his independent campaign. But experts said they see this month’s historic events doing the opposite, pushing the independent candidate further from relevance.
Kennedy’s biggest recent attention came not because of news of progress in his own campaign, but when the Washington Post disclosed that he had spoken with former President Trump. on endorsing his campaign and taking a job in a second Trump administration.
“I feel like he was nothing but a rank opportunist,” said Michael A. Genovese, a political scientist at Loyola Marymount University. “It was devastating for him.”
Melissa M. Smith, an expert on independent presidential candidates, said Kennedy’s path to relevance has become even more difficult.
“Republicans and Democrats are just sucking all the oxygen out of the room right now,” said Smith, author of “Third Parties, Outsiders, and Renegades: Modern Challenges to the Two-Party System in Presidential Elections.” “There hasn’t been an opportunity for Kennedy to break through because there’s so much going on with the leading candidates.”
In a phone interview from his family’s compound in Hyannis Port, Mass., Kennedy downplayed his conversation with Trump, saying he would also be open to talking to Harris or “anyone who wants to protect the health of children.” — a topic he said was part of his 90-minute conversation with Trump. (Although he acknowledged that Harris probably didn’t want to talk to him.)
The environmental lawyer, who lives in Los Angeles most of the year, said Biden’s exit last week “injected a lot of energy into our campaign.” He added: “We have a giant increase in volunteers, in contributions and in social commitment.”
The new campaign funds claimed by the Kennedy camp have not yet appeared in Federal Election Commission records. Reports filed with the election agency showed that American Values 2024, the super PAC that supports Kennedy, raised only $228,000 in June. His own campaign raised $5.4 million, while he banked heavily on the $2.5 million donated by his running mate, Nicole Shanahan. But he spent more: $6.2 million.
Kennedy’s campaign had $5.6 million in cash at the end of June, a small fraction of the $128 million banked by Trump and the $96 million held by Harris, FEC records show. And this was before the vice president had a surge in donations, after Biden endorsed her to become the Democratic nominee.
The independent candidate also had to go to the defense after a Vanity Fair article said a weekend babysitter accused her of sexual assault when she was in her early 20s and worked for the Kennedy family in the 1990s. Text messages revealed the candidate later apologized to the woman the publication of the article, but Kennedy told reporters that he did not remember anything about the alleged attacks.
Independent and third-party candidates traditionally struggle to get the attention of those running for the major parties. An exception came in June 1992, when businessman Ross Perot ran into a narrow lead over President George HW Bush and Democratic challenger Bill Clinton. Perot faded, and Clinton went on to victory.
Perot gained enough traction that the Commission on Presidential Debates included him in all three debates in the fall of 1992. Kennedy’s exclusion from last month’s debate exemplified the challenge he faces.
More than 51 million Americans watched television coverage of the showdown, with Biden’s vague and vague performance prompting a groundswell for him to drop out of the race. Kennedy rested by simulcasting his answers to debate questions. The YouTube program had less than 800,000 streams.
“There’s only so much room for news, and it’s hard to see how you can get a lot of news attention unless you do something completely outrageous or outlandish,” said Smith, a communications professor at Mississippi University for Women. “He has the misfortune of being in this campaign where something unprecedented is happening, putting so much focus on Harris. And it’s really difficult to surpass Trump, to attract attention.”
Genovese said Kennedy faces an additional hurdle: At 70, he offered a slightly younger option for Americans upset about having to choose between two of the oldest candidates in history — Biden, 81, and Trump, 78. Harris, 59, is now far away. more youthful alternative.
“When we’ve got the two least popular candidates in history on the ballot, or that prospect, I think a third-party candidate might be someone you take a look at,” Genovese said. “But with Harris entering the race, that takes age off the table. I think a lot of Democrats are going to come home to her.”
Kennedy argued that disillusionment with both parties would hurt him and help him in the long run. Last week, he announced an “America Strong” initiative — aimed at drawing the kind of nonpartisan unity exhibited after facing natural disasters.
“What we haven’t had is a government of unity,” Kennedy said, “headed by an independent president, beholden to no party, free from corporate influence, unfavored by the Washington establishment, and ready to recruit the best ideas from both parties and from all those who have been abandoned.”
While he criticized both parties, Kennedy focused more of his anger on the Democrats – the party of his father, Senator Robert F. Kennedy, and his uncle, President Kennedy.
He criticized Harris, saying that she had “played a leading role in assuring the country that President Biden did not have a cognitive disability. And I think people now understand that it was not true.”
“I think Americans want to be able to trust their leaders,” he added, “and there is the appearance, at least, that she is putting her political ambitions ahead of our national interests.”
While Kennedy has been an energetic activist and attracts a fanatical following among some Americans, most national polls have shown his support to remain in the single digits. He was seen by many as a fringe candidate, with the scientific and medical mainstream rejecting his claims that vaccines often hurt people and can cause autism.
He blasted Trump and Democrats for the “500-day shutdown” that followed the spread of COVID-19 in 2020. He called the closing of churches, public gatherings and the tracking of health data part of “the most big assault on the Constitution in 2020″. American history.”
Kennedy announced in October that he would drop his bid for the Democratic nomination and run as an independent.
After Biden’s exit, Kennedy slammed the president for his quick “anointing” of Harris. He said the Democratic nominee should be chosen, instead, based on a series of “zero margin of error polls,” which would measure which candidate was most likely to defeat Trump.
“And if they had done that, by the way, I would have won,” Kennedy said. He pointed to a poll conducted for his campaign that showed him beating the Republican.
A New York Times-Siena poll released Thursday found Harris and Trump in a virtual dead heat nationally, with the Republican leading by 1 percentage point among likely voters. With Kennedy and other independent and third-party candidates added to the mix, the poll showed Harris with a 1 percentage point lead over Trump, with Kennedy a distant third at 5%.
Kennedy’s criticism of the Democrats provoked anger and contempt in the party, including members of his extended family, members of one of the great American political dynasties.
Following the news of the recent collusion between Kennedy and Trump, the Democratic National Committee released a scathing statement.
DNC spokesman Matt Corridoni said: “That RFK Jr. would engage in the same political deals he claims to despise shows that he knows his spoiler candidacy won’t get him into the House White”.